IEA and OPEC split on global oil demand estimates as Hormuz closure drags on

The world's two most closely watched oil forecasters published sharply conflicting outlooks for 2026 this week. The International Energy Agency deepened its call for the first annual demand decline since the pandemic, while the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries continues to project that global consumption will keep growing.

The split emerged as the Strait of Hormuz closure continues to disrupt global shipping lanes. The decline in tanker traffic through the strait has added fresh uncertainty on the supply side, creating conflicting signals for markets already grappling with the IEA's more pessimistic demand outlook.

Analysts say the disagreement between the two forecasters could add pressure on pricing, as investors struggle to determine whether to weight the risk of supply disruption more heavily than signs of demand weakness. Markets appear likely to remain cautious until there is greater clarity on when the situation in the strait will normalize, with both benchmark crude contracts swinging on every fresh headline out of the region.