Russia appears to have pulled back from Kinburn Spit, its westernmost foothold in Ukraine

Located in the south of the Mykolaiv region where the Dnieper estuary opens into the Black Sea, Kinburn Spit was held up as a strategic success for Moscow when Russian forces seized it in 2022. From there, attacks could be launched on the Ukrainian mainland and the spit could have served as a springboard for any push toward Odesa. That picture now appears to be changing.

Maxar Technologies satellite imagery and statements from Ukraine's military intelligence directorate GUR indicate that Russian infantry and artillery positions have been largely vacated over the past three weeks. According to maps from open-source tracking group DeepState, the Russian presence has been reduced to a symbolic observation force. Colonel Nataliya Humeniuk said the area had become logistically unsustainable.

France 24 correspondent Romeo Langlois reported that the abandonment of Kinburn aligns with a Russian command decision to redirect manpower to the Pokrovsk line in the Donetsk region. The NATO Allied Intelligence Officers Committee assessed that Ukrainian forces could attempt landings on the remaining islands in the coming weeks. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the moves as ordinary operational repositioning.