Iran war could deliver $300 billion shock to US economy, analysis warns
A new MarketWatch analysis estimates the war in Iran could cost the US economy up to $300 billion, driving mortgage rates higher and squeezing wages. The hit would come through rising oil prices, freight disruptions and weakened consumer spending. Economists warn the shock could be larger if the conflict broadens into a regional war.
The war between the United States and Iran could deliver an economic shock worth as much as $300 billion to American households and businesses, according to a new analysis published by MarketWatch on Wednesday. The figure combines higher fuel and freight bills, weaker consumer spending and the deferred cost of borrowing as long-term interest rates drift upward.
The piece points to West Texas Intermediate crude trading at multi-year highs and a recent jump in April wholesale inflation as evidence the shock is already filtering through the supply chain. Mortgage rates climbed to a five-week high this week, while construction and trucking groups have warned that fuel costs are eating into margins.
Economists cited in the article say the total damage could be considerably larger if hostilities widen to involve Gulf shipping lanes or other regional militaries. The Strait of Hormuz remains the central pressure point, with roughly a fifth of global oil trade passing through the waterway. Analysts will look to next week's retail sales and consumer sentiment readings for early signs of demand destruction.
More from North America
Cerebras prices IPO at $185 a share, raising $5.55 billion
AI chipmaker Cerebras priced its initial public offering at $185 per share, above the marketed range, to raise about $5.55 billion. The deal values the Sunnyvale-based startup at more than $40 billion. It marks one of the largest US tech listings of the year and a fresh gauge of investor appetite for AI infrastructure.
Microsoft worried about over-reliance on OpenAI, Musk-Altman trial reveals
Internal correspondence presented in the lawsuit between Sam Altman and Elon Musk shows Microsoft grew concerned about its deepening reliance on OpenAI. The company sought to expand its own AI capacity to avoid leaving enterprise customers tied to a single model provider, the testimony said.
GameStop makes $55.5bn takeover offer for eBay
GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen announced a $55.5 billion takeover offer for eBay, seeing potential to make it a much bigger rival to Amazon.