Fall in official Ebola numbers appears to be good news but it's not that simple
Official Ebola case counts in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo have been falling for weeks, but disease-tracking experts warn the picture is more fragile than it appears, BBC analysis says. Gaps in case detection and lab capacity can skew the figures.
BBC AfricaAccording to BBC health-desk analysis, official Ebola case counts in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo have eased in recent weeks. But the World Health Organization and the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention say testing capacity remains thin in rural areas and unreported cases may still exist.
Experts say a confirmed downturn requires sustaining zero cases for at least two Ebola incubation periods, about 42 days. Current data have not yet met that threshold. Cross-border population movement and local suspicion also complicate the tracking effort.
WHO and Africa CDC last week unveiled a 518-million-dollar response plan covering detection capacity, funded vaccine supply and community-based control measures. This is not medical advice. Donor coordination and vaccine roll-out are issues to track closely over the coming weeks.
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