Why there's more talk of an AUKUS 'plan B' in Canberra
Australian Defence Department documents indicate that Canberra is reassessing AUKUS 'plan B' scenarios in response to delayed joint defence industrial shipments since the Iran crisis. Uncertainty about the US Virginia-class submarine delivery timetable sits at the heart of the discussion.
Internal documents from the Australian Department of Defence reviewed by ABC News Australia show that Canberra is examining alternative procurement scenarios in response to AUKUS industrial shipments delayed since the Iran crisis. The documents consider the possibility that delivery of Virginia-class submarines could slip from 2032 to 2034, in which case Australia would need to extend the service life of its Collins-class fleet.
Defence Minister Richard Marles said 'there is no plan B; the AUKUS programme is moving forward with determination'. However, Australian Strategic Policy Institute director Justin Bassi told ABC News that 'preparing a realistic fleet-transition scenario is a matter of responsible policy'. US Navy Department spokesperson John Kirby said the Iran-related shipping disruption is 'temporary', while shadow defence minister Andrew Hastie called for transparency from the government.
Australian Strategic Policy Institute analyst Bates Gill said Japanese Soryu-class or French Suffren-class submarines could serve as short- to medium-term bridge options. The total AUKUS programme value is around 368 billion Australian dollars, with Australia planning $32 billion in component orders from the US and UK by the end of 2030. University of Sydney professor Peter Dean said the White House's Iran policy has triggered a shift in Pacific trust calculations.
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