BBC analysis: Trump-Netanyahu reshaping bid risks Mideast permacrisis
BBC Middle East editor Jeremy Bowen assessed that U.S. and Israeli leaders have lost control of the consequences of their Iran war calculations. Bowen wrote that the single short-war scenario has shifted into a multi-front and long-running crisis dynamic. The analysis points to a risk of disorder on the map rather than a new order.
In his analysis, Jeremy Bowen writes that the original White House and Jerusalem calculation was to reshape regional balances through a short, controlled war. According to Bowen, the simultaneous opening of the Hezbollah, Houthi and Bahrain-Kuwait-Jordan fronts has exposed the weakness of that calculation. The framing that Israel and the U.S. miscalculated has gained wide acceptance among regional analysts.
Brookings Doha director Marwan Muasher told Reuters that military success does not turn into durability without diplomatic architecture. Carnegie Middle East Center researcher Maha Yahya, based in Beirut, wrote that establishing a U.S.-Israeli-led order is not feasible across the region's fragmented landscape of actors.
Bowen's analysis suggests Tehran's internal political balance may also shift in the coming weeks. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has sent invitations for a joint NATO-Gulf Cooperation Council meeting. A date for the meeting has yet to be announced. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas said she would share a shuttle-diplomacy calendar next week.
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