Goldman Sachs Lifts Yuan Forecast on China's Export Strength
Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month yuan forecast after China's April export data came in well above estimates. Strategists cited the prospect of partial tariff relief at the upcoming Trump-Xi summit and flagged downward pressure on the euro.
Goldman Sachs economists cut their 12-month USD/CNY target to 7.00 after China's April exports jumped by an estimated 8% year on year. The bank said sustained export momentum and a widening current-account surplus had restored some of Beijing's reserve buffers.
The note flagged the upcoming Trump-Xi summit as a potential catalyst for partial tariff relief. Under that scenario, Goldman expects the yuan to strengthen against both the dollar and the euro. For European exporters, sharper Chinese competition could squeeze margins in autos, machinery and electrical equipment.
For Turkish investors the read-across is mixed. A firmer yuan supports BIST names that supply Chinese capacity in machinery and electrics, while downward pressure on EUR/USD may dampen exporter margins. The euro tested support near 1.07 against the dollar this week, with traders watching the next round of trade headlines.
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