Iran and US could be close to breakthrough in talks for draft deal to end war

In the SCMP analysis, an unnamed Iranian official said indirect talks between Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and US Iran envoy Steve Witkoff are 'approaching a workable framework'. The framework reportedly entails Iran rolling back enrichment from 60 percent to 20 percent in exchange for the US lifting roughly 30 percent of OFAC individual economic sanctions. Tehran did not issue an official statement; White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said 'we will not comment on the negotiations'.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said at his New York briefing that 'reports of draft progress are encouraging'. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas announced that the EU Council will convene on 28 May to revise the Iran sanctions framework. International Crisis Group analyst Ali Vaez said any agreement would require 'at least a six-week verification process given technical and political complexity'.

Brent crude futures fell from $99.40 to $96.80 per barrel, while WTI dropped from $96.30 to $93.40. The Tehran stock exchange index rose 4.2 percent and the Iranian rial gained 2.7 percent on the official market versus the dollar. Lloyd's of London war-risk insurance premiums fell 8 percent in 24 hours. AGAR Ekonomi Türkiye assessed the Brent retreat as a 'short-term positive signal' for Turkish inflation outlook.