SCMP analysis: China–India thaw is real, but it should not be called reconciliation

In the column, the South China Morning Post notes that diplomatic exchanges between China and India have visibly intensified over the past six months. Civil aviation authorities are nearing agreement on relaunching direct Mumbai–Shanghai and New Delhi–Beijing flights. India is considering extending the multi-entry business visa from 90 to 180 days, and Beijing is exploring bilateral exemptions within annual tariff quotas.

The article cautions, however, that these steps do not resolve the deeper issues. In border talks, disputes along the Hindu Kush front remain structural, and positions on Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai Chin have not shifted. China's infrastructure investments in Pakistan and Sri Lanka along the Indian Ocean continue to raise strategic concerns in New Delhi.

Analysts say the short-term thaw depends on the global trade environment and the trajectory of Brent prices. Pressure from US tariff policy is pushing both countries toward bilateral channels. SCMP commentators say the two sides are seeking a "sustainable equilibrium", but the underlying strategic rivalry remains. These are general expert views and not investment advice.