Intel's comeback story is even wilder than it seems

When Intel's shares dropped below 18 dollars at the end of 2024, half its investors expected the foundry business to be spun out from the parent. MarketWatch analysis shows that Apple, Microsoft and US defence deals signed in the past three quarters have lifted the foundry segment's margin from minus 32 per cent to minus 6 per cent.

Chief executive Lip-Bu Tan was personally involved in clinching the Apple contract. His strategy: weave US tax credits, Pentagon priorities and hyperscale AI demand into the same equation. The company's Fab 52 in Arizona is scheduled to start production on its 18A node in the third quarter of 2026.

Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore raised his price target from 49 dollars to 78 dollars. Even so, the balance sheet must be read with care: free cash flow is still negative and the debt ratio sits at 39 per cent. Intel's coming gains rely on the assumption that semiconductor geopolitics keeps trending in the United States's favour.