US Inflation Print Tuesday Expected Near a Three-Year High
Tuesday's US CPI is expected near a three-year high, with Dow Jones-polled economists seeing headline inflation around 4.1% year-on-year. Iran war energy prices, recent tariffs and sticky services costs are seen driving the pickup, complicating the Fed's rate path and shaping market expectations.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April CPI on Tuesday. Dow Jones-polled economists expect headline inflation around 4.1% year-on-year and core inflation near 4%. That would be the fastest annual pace since March 2023.
Analysts cite three drivers: high Brent prices linked to the Iran war, fresh Trump tariffs feeding through to consumer goods, and sticky services items such as rent and insurance.
The print sharpens an already difficult picture for the Fed. Chair Powell has declined to call the geopolitical shock transitory; Treasury yields are higher and odds of any 2026 rate cut have receded.
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