SEC Delays Prediction-Market ETFs, Echoing the Long Bitcoin Fund Battle
The US Securities and Exchange Commission has delayed the trading launch of the first exchange-traded funds tied to prediction markets. The decision echoes the multi-year fight over spot bitcoin ETFs and highlights how slowly new asset classes win regulatory approval in the United States.
The SEC postponed a decision on filings to launch the first prediction-market ETFs, which it began reviewing in September. The funds would let investors take positions through exchange-traded contracts tied to outcomes ranging from political events to cultural milestones.
According to CNBC, the regulator said the extension reflects the need for additional review. The same playbook delayed spot bitcoin ETFs for close to a decade before they were finally cleared at the start of 2024, after multiple rounds of pushback and refiling.
Industry representatives at platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket warned the delay could prolong uncertainty for the sector. Goldman Sachs and other brokers, by contrast, expect prediction markets to follow a crypto-style adoption curve and eventually win broad acceptance across Wall Street.
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