OPEC+ meets as the Iran war erodes the cartel's grip on the oil market
Ahead of OPEC+'s weekend meeting, producers acknowledge that the Iran front has cut Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic; according to the Economic Times, the cartel's pricing power has been blunted even with Brent stuck above $90. A fourth quota hike since the Hormuz disruption is on the table.
An Economic Times analysis citing OPEC+ sources says that even with the cartel's nominal market share at about 53%, its capacity to steer prices has been blunted over the past three months by grey-fleet spot shipments and Saudi Aramco's lengthening official-selling-price adjustment cycles. Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic remains around 30% below normal.
The paper says the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) will weigh a fourth quota hike since the Hormuz disruption, which would add roughly 480,000 barrels per day in additional supply. Saudi Arabia has applied a $1.50 per barrel premium on cargoes heading from East to Asia; India, meanwhile, ran its strategic reserve down by 25 million barrels over the past week to anchor pricing.
A Goldman Sachs analysis cited in the article projects a fourth-quarter supply surplus exceeding 600,000 barrels per day if International Energy Agency production goals are met, with a Chinese demand-slowdown scenario potentially pulling Brent to $78 and a fallback-defence scenario lifting it to $105. The note was framed as analysis, "not investment advice."
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