United States and Iran: the war of unequal forces that neither side could win
El País's analysis published Monday night argues that the twelve-day hot phase of the US-Iran conflict, despite Washington's tactical superiority, produced no strategic gain, while Iran, despite domestic instability risk, was unable to permanently damage the US base network. The piece emphasises that military-capacity asymmetry alone is not sufficient for a diplomatic outcome.
In the analysis, author Andrea Rizzi details how between June 9 and 21 the US lifted naval-force presence by about 35 percent across its Indo-Pacific and European commands and carried out 14 airstrikes against Iran. CENTCOM reported that 67 percent of Iranian ballistic-missile strikes against US bases in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain were intercepted.
The article argues the confrontation ended in an asymmetric equilibrium: the US pushed back Iran's nuclear programme by three to five months, but Iran's proxy-network capacity in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon remained largely intact. Brookings analyst Suzanne Maloney is quoted in the piece saying « neither side was in a position to force a political outcome by military means alone. »
The International Crisis Group said the post-conflict Geneva framework agreement gives both sides an 18-month off-ramp but added that « significant details remain missing » in the nuclear-inspection chapter. Rizzi stresses that sustaining diplomacy in the coming period will be more decisive than the asymmetric military balance.
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