Nvidia says its forecast for $200 billion CPU market includes China
Nvidia confirmed its forecast of a $200 billion data centre CPU market by 2030 includes China. CFO Colette Kress said the company has not excluded China revenue from the projection, citing the evolving nature of US export curbs. Investors flagged the company's open dialogue channels with Beijing after Monday's Wall Street close.
AI chip giant Nvidia confirmed last week's long-term market projection that the data centre CPU market will reach USD 200 billion by 2030 includes China. CFO Colette Kress, speaking at a San Jose investor meeting, said 'the forecast methodology does not rest on a predetermined scenario of national restrictions; China market size will be reassessed as conditions evolve'.
With US Commerce Department export controls on H200 and Blackwell B200 products ongoing, Nvidia maintains a presence in the market through China-specific H20 and B30 products; China revenue reached approximately USD 13.2 billion in fiscal 2025. CEO Jensen Huang visited Beijing last month and said the company had 'largely lost the market' to Huawei Ascend competition. Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon published a note saying 'including China in the forecast could increase nationalist pushback but is positive for share valuation'.
Nvidia announced record revenue of USD 47.1 billion and an additional USD 80 billion share buyback in its Q1 results. The lack of progress on US-China semiconductor curbs at the APEC summit adds uncertainty for the coming quarter. This sector view does not constitute investment advice.
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