One Nation set to become federal opposition, new Australian poll predicts

A national poll by Roy Morgan announced by ABC News Australia predicted that the right-wing populist One Nation party could close the race in the September federal election with 18.4 percent of first-preference votes and overtake the Liberal-National Coalition (16.2 percent) to take federal opposition status. The result is the highest poll share reached since Pauline Hanson founded the party in 1998. The Albanese-led Labor Party maintains its lead at 31.2 percent; the Greens rose to 14.8 percent.

Roy Morgan chief analyst Michele Levine analysed that 'immigration debates and the cost-of-living crisis's pressure on the middle class have enabled One Nation's growth without a shift to the far right; about a third of the traditional Liberal voter base has left the party'. Hanson said at a Brisbane press conference 'we will continue to be the voice of ordinary Australians; our proposal to bring the immigration quota to zero is the only concrete solution'. Liberal leader Sussan Ley warned on X 'voting for One Nation clears the way for Labor; the splitting of conservative votes serves Albanese'.

Monash University political science professor Zareh Ghazarian analysed that 'One Nation reaching opposition status opens the door to a structure resembling US Republican-Democrat polarisation; it would necessitate Liberal-One Nation negotiations in Senate deliberations'. The Australian dollar lost 0.4 percent on the news; risk perception concentrated on political uncertainty after the news. The September election campaign will officially begin on 12 August.