Ebola spread in Central Africa could match 2014 record outbreak, US health officials warn
US health officials say the ongoing Ebola outbreak in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo is spreading at a pace that resembles the dynamics of the 2014 West African outbreak. Senior officials, speaking to the Guardian, warned that gaps in the response could carry the outbreak to the second-largest scale in history over the next 12 months.
The current outbreak is driven by the Bundibugyo strain. This strain has a lower case-fatality rate than the more lethal Zaire strain, but its incubation period and pattern of spread are similar.
The paper notes that the 2014-15 West African outbreak ended with 28,640 cases and 11,325 deaths. Confirmed case counts in the current outbreak remain in four-digit territory, but the clusters confirmed by the World Health Organization are widening on both sides of the Uganda-DRC border.
The Guardian reports that the rollback of US Agency for International Development (USAID) staffing in global health programmes has slowed the response. USAID previously supported contact-tracing teams in eastern Congo; the gap is being partially filled by Dutch and German donations for now.
The US Department of Health and Human Services confirmed that the experimental monoclonal antibody MBP-134 will be available for high-risk Americans exposed to Ebola once they return to the country. The decision makes it easier for both aid workers and US scientists to continue scheduled travel.
The WHO vaccine distribution plan announced in October includes three Bundibugyo-strain vaccine candidates. CEPI had earmarked $62 million in additional funding; new CDC models suggest current coverage is about a third of what is needed.
Dr Jennifer Nuzzo, of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore, told the Guardian: "The trajectory is currently containable, but if financial support is cut, a new wave begins. Once the curve climbs, it takes months to bring it back down."
The 14-day travel screening regime announced by Uganda's health ministry is still operating at Kampala airport. On the DRC side infrastructure constraints are tighter; burial practices and mobile vaccination team coordination remain challenges on the ground.
The link between the outbreak and deforestation was explored in a separate Guardian investigation. The authors highlight how mining-driven forest loss for metals used in smartphones is expanding the human-fruit bat contact surface.
This article is not medical advice and cannot be used for diagnosis. Travellers to areas at risk of Ebola are advised to consult country travel advisories and seek vaccination guidance.
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