Births in England and Wales fall to the lowest level in 50 years
Recorded live births in England and Wales in 2024 fell to the lowest level in 50 years. According to BBC reporting based on Office for National Statistics (ONS) data, around 591,072 births occurred last year — the lowest annual birth figure since 1977. Compared with 2023, this represents a decline of approximately 3.7 per cent.
The total fertility rate (TFR), which expresses average births per woman, fell to 1.44 in 2024. This rate, which would need to sit at around 2.1 for population stability, has not been this low for many years. By way of comparison, the TFR was 1.94 in 2010 — a substantial decline over fourteen years.
Demographers say the causes behind the decline are multi-layered. First, the average age at which women have their first child has risen in recent years; average maternal age reached 31 in 2024. Second, economic insecurity — high housing costs and wages failing to keep pace with inflation — has created pressure on younger couples to postpone the decision to have children. Third, shifts in personal life choices — career focus, travel, child-free living preferences — have a statistical impact.
Regional variation across the country is notable. Some parts of London are reported to have relatively higher birth rates, while areas of northern and central England have fallen to historic lows. This geographic variation carries significant implications for local public-service planning (health, education).
In a comment to BBC, one expert said the share of women who view having children as a choice has historically risen. The remark suggests that the decline in births is tied to the expansion of women's autonomous decision-making rights. The same expert also stressed the importance of economic factors.
From a long-term public-policy standpoint, the low fertility rate is expected to increase the share of older adults in the population. This may raise the number of pensioners per worker, increase the financial burden on the social-security system, and shift demand for health services. Whether the government will craft a strategy in response to this trend will be watched in upcoming policy statements from the Department of Health and Social Care.
For international comparison, the fertility trend in England and Wales is part of the broader European demographic decline. Germany, France, Italy and Spain show similar trends; only some Scandinavian countries have experienced temporary recovery periods. It is emphasised that this trend, driven by wide-ranging economic and social causes, would be hard to reverse with a single policy decision.
The decline in births may also affect the NHS's long-term workforce planning. Demand in paediatrics, midwifery and obstetrics specialties can change in line with birth trends. At the same time, demand for older-adult services is expected to rise.
The president of the Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists (RCOG), Dr Ranee Thakar, told the BBC about the importance of access to maternity services. Thakar said: 'The investment needed to provide quality healthcare to women who do decide to have children must be kept at the forefront.' The statement is being interpreted as part of the social-policy reactions to the decline in births.
This article does not constitute fertility or family-planning advice; statistics are based on ONS and BBC official reporting. For personal health or family-planning decisions, we recommend consulting a health professional.