Shifting Chinese diets could ease soy pressure on Amazon
Slower meat consumption growth and more efficient livestock policies in China are starting to ease structural demand for Brazilian soy. The shift could help slow Amazon deforestation but is squeezing the margins of agribusiness exporters.
China's national statistics bureau says per-capita meat consumption has fallen about 9% from its 2022 peak, with pork and beef leading the decline. Beijing is also rolling out an efficiency drive aimed at cutting feed-conversion ratios by roughly 15% per animal.
Together, the trends have led the Brazilian government to peg 2025/26 soy export forecasts at 102 million tonnes, flat year-on-year. Producers in Mato Grosso this season held planted area steady for the first time in a decade, as the marginal return from clearing new land continues to fall.
Deforestation in the Amazon basin dropped 6% in 2025 — the best annual figure for President Lula despite drought and fires. Soy crushers and traders are feeling it: JBS, Bunge and ADM contracts for June are pricing in a margin squeeze and investors are rotating out of names tied to Chinese protein demand.
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