Goldman Sachs trims global smartphone market forecasts on memory cost surge
Goldman Sachs analysts cut their 2026 global smartphone shipment forecast by 2.4 percent, citing a sudden spike in DRAM and NAND prices squeezing manufacturer margins. Apple, Xiaomi and Samsung are flagged as the most exposed brands. HBM prioritisation in supply chains is also feeding through.
Goldman Sachs' global tech team led by analyst Allen Chang lowered its 2026 total smartphone shipment estimate from 1.21 billion units to 1.18 billion. The note flagged that DRAM spot prices have jumped 70 percent in six months and NAND has surged 45 percent, forcing manufacturers to absorb $18 to $25 of additional bill-of-materials cost per device.
Apple plans to raise iPhone prices by an average 8 percent to defend premium-segment margins. Chinese makers such as Xiaomi and Oppo are more exposed at the price-sensitive low end. Samsung, with captive memory supply, is relatively insulated, though internal transfer pricing means its handset division margin will narrow by 1.2 percentage points.
The prioritisation of HBM (high-bandwidth memory) for AI data centres is crowding out conventional DRAM and NAND capacity. Goldman expects the squeeze to persist through mid-2027 and forecasts a 6 percent global lift in smartphone average selling prices over the next four quarters.
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