Gulf Economies Face Long-Term Hit From Iran Conflict
A BBC analysis finds that Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies are starting to register lasting losses in investment, tourism and energy exports. Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 projects and the United Arab Emirates' bid to become a logistics hub are being scaled back as insurance and shipping costs surge.
A month of war between Iran and the United States is starting to leave its first lasting damage on long-term economic planning across the Gulf. The BBC analysis suggests that lead contractors on Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 investments could push project schedules back by at least six months.
In the United Arab Emirates, the number of large container ships calling at Dubai ports has dropped by 22%. Surging war-risk insurance premiums and longer routings are eroding the country's strategy to position itself as a logistics hub. Qatar is trying to limit losses by redirecting LNG shipments along alternative Asia routes, but transport costs have risen by about $40 per tonne.
At the macro level, the IMF has cut its 2026 growth forecast for the GCC bloc from 3.7% to 2.6%. Energy-dependent economies such as Kuwait and Bahrain are starting to reassess public spending. Regional analysts say that even if Hormuz tensions ease, normalising insurance terms and investor sentiment will take years.
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