US SNAP food restrictions widen across states, putting Coca-Cola, PepsiCo and Mondelez on alert

Restrictions in the US Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) that bar the purchase of soda, candy and ultra-processed foods are spreading to more states. Iowa, Indiana and Arkansas have obtained federal waivers narrowing what beneficiaries can buy, with similar proposals under discussion in California and New York. Total SNAP spending exceeds $100 billion a year.

The program reaches about 42 million people, giving it real weight in consumer markets. Food and beverage giants such as Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Mondelez and Kraft Heinz are watching for shifts in the sales mix. A recent Bank of America note estimates that SNAP accounts for roughly 10% to 15% of US sales in some snack and sugary-drink categories.

Analysts expect the shift to favor produce, dairy and grains, with retailers such as Walmart and Kroger potentially benefiting from steadier basket value. Manufacturers are signaling plans to expand healthier snack portfolios and accelerate reformulation efforts. If federal policy aligns the waivers into a single framework, the impact could be felt over multiple years.