Lowy report finds China's ability to hit Australia with missiles is 'real and growing'
A new report from the Sydney-based Lowy Institute concludes that China's ability to hit the Australian mainland with long-range conventional missiles is growing materially toward 2030. The report calls for a reassessment of defence spending and deeper coordination with allies.
Drawing on open-source intelligence and satellite imagery, the Lowy report concludes that China's accumulation of long-range conventional missiles in East Asia, with ranges exceeding 5,000 kilometres, is reaching the level where northern Australia could be in range. Co-author Sam Roggeveen, a defence analyst, called the risk "not existential, but no longer ignorable".
The Australian government said the Lowy assessment aligned with the AUKUS submarine programme and plans to invest in air defence infrastructure in the Northern Territory. The defence minister said the report strengthened the case for raising defence spending to 2.4% of GDP by 2030. China's foreign ministry described the report as "false rhetoric".
Under AUKUS with the United States and the United Kingdom, two new submarines under construction in Adelaide are scheduled to enter service in 2032. Regionally, Japan and the Philippines are also working on extended-range defensive missile systems. The G7 summit opens tomorrow in Évian, with Indo-Pacific security on the agenda.
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