Turkish Central Bank to Release Quarterly Inflation Report on Thursday
Turkey's central bank, the CBRT, will publish its second quarterly inflation report on Thursday. Investors are watching for signals on the interest rate path and any revision to the year-end inflation forecast.
The presentation by the CBRT governor is scheduled for 10:30 local time and follows April's annual inflation reading, which held near 36 percent. In its March report the bank projected end-2026 inflation at 21 percent; market consensus expects that forecast to be revised toward the 23-25 percent range.
The policy rate is currently held at 41.5 percent. The pass-through from energy prices linked to the Iran war and recent moves in the lira sit at the top of the bank's risk map. The Turkish lira has lost roughly 12 percent against the dollar this year, which is adding upward pressure to the inflation path.
Economists expect the report to set out a clearer timetable for how long monetary tightening will continue. Housing, education and food inflation all remain above 40 percent year-on-year, while industrial output has slowed in recent months. Investors will also watch the updated 12-month inflation expectations survey published alongside the report.
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