Insecurity and instability drive Peruvian voters in a tight presidential race

BBC reporters in Lima and the northern coastal region say Peruvian voters now name "job security" and "urban safety" as their first concerns, after a cascade of political crises and the spread of extortion rings rooted in mining regions. The country's GDP grew 2.4% in the first half of the year, but the official poverty rate has climbed by six points since 2019 to 29%, according to government data.

Two of the four leading candidates are projected to make the runoff with margins as thin as 1.5 percentage points, the broadcaster reported. An election-monitoring spokesperson told the BBC that 312 election-related violence incidents have been logged nationwide. With former president Pedro Castillo's trial continuing, analysts said street protest could translate into the ballot box; the central bank held its policy rate at 5.00% at the last meeting, citing political uncertainty.

The broadcaster also noted that the S&P/BVL Peru General Index fell 2.3% last week, with foreign investors trimming their Peru exposure by a net $180 million over the past month as they watched the left-versus-centre-right split. Mining analysts said that, irrespective of the final result, the impact on the Quellaveco expansion timetable and the Tia Maria project will be the key signal for investment plans.