100 days of the Iran war: oil, bonds and equities settle into a war-shaped regime
As the US-Israel-Iran front approaches 100 days, Brent has held above $90 and the 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated. CNBC charts show the S&P 500 still about 4% below its pre-war level, while defense names have decoupled to the upside.
Brent crude has held above $90 since the Iran front opened, according to market data compiled by CNBC, with analysts estimating Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic running roughly 30% below baseline. Asian spot LNG prices are up 18% and US natural gas futures have decoupled higher as cargoes are rerouted toward Europe.
In fixed income, the 10-year Treasury yield has settled near 4.5%, up from 4.1% before the war; foreign demand at last week's auction was notably soft, the Treasury reported. On the equity side, the S&P 500 is down nearly 4% over the 100-day window, while defense names such as Lockheed Martin, RTX and Northrop Grumman have climbed 25–35%. Analysts framed the decoupling as a war-risk premium and added "not investment advice."
Money markets now price a single 25-basis-point Federal Reserve cut by year-end despite persistent inflation pressure; Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a 100-day review that "geopolitical uncertainty does not change the balance-sheet runoff schedule," which supported the dollar index. A JPMorgan strategist said Brent could retest $110 if the conflict broadens, but added this is not the base case.
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