HPV vaccine cuts risk of dying from cervical cancer before 30 to near zero

A large new UK study published in The Lancet has found that women vaccinated against the human papillomavirus (HPV) during adolescence now face almost no risk of dying from cervical cancer before the age of 30. The research uses data accumulated since the national vaccination programme launched in 2008 and is the first long-term mortality readout from that programme.

Led by King's College London researchers, the study analysed records for roughly 14 million girls born in England between 1990 and 1996 and offered the vaccine at school age. Among the vaccinated cohort, the mortality rate from cervical cancer before age 30 was 0.2 per 100,000, about one-twentieth of the rate observed in pre-vaccine generations.

Lead author Professor Peter Sasieni told the Guardian the findings were "stronger than we had expected". "This is the first major study to show directly that the vaccine prevents not only cases but deaths, on a substantial scale," Sasieni said. The data show effectiveness peaks in cohorts vaccinated at age 12 to 13 under the two-dose schedule.

HPV is the most common group of sexually transmitted infections globally, and certain high-risk HPV types are implicated in about 99% of all cervical cancers. England's programme began with the Cervarix vaccine in 2008, switched to Gardasil in 2012, and moved to Gardasil 9, which targets nine HPV strains, in 2019. Boys have been offered the vaccine since 2019.

The World Health Organization has set a target of eliminating cervical cancer globally by 2030, which would require 90% of girls under 15 to receive two doses of the HPV vaccine and women aged 35 to 45 to attend regular screening. England is currently cited as one of the countries closest to that goal.

A notable finding of the new paper is that vaccine effectiveness held in socioeconomically deprived areas. Earlier screening-based strategies had shown markedly higher mortality among women from low-income postcodes; the new data suggest the vaccine substantially narrows that inequality.

Public health specialists also stress that the long-term safety profile remains favourable. A parallel monitoring report from the UK Health Security Agency found no statistical rise in serious adverse events over the 18-year period. The most common side effects were transient pain at the injection site and mild fever.

Dr Michelle Mitchell, chief executive of Cancer Research UK, called the study "a generational turning point". "Girls and boys at school today will grow up in a completely different reality from their grandmothers, and deaths from cervical cancer could become a thing of the past within reach," Mitchell said, while urging that screening participation must not fall.

Experts say replicating the success globally will require closing inequities in vaccine access. A WHO report released the same day as the Lancet study found HPV vaccination coverage in low- and middle-income countries still hovers around 25%, and these countries continue to carry the highest cervical cancer burden.

Next steps for England include a catch-up programme for women who missed vaccination in their twenties and a review of a third-dose schedule for immunocompromised patients. NHS England has asked unvaccinated women over 25 to contact their GP. Officials say the sharp drop in mortality may also prompt a fresh discussion about the optimal frequency of cervical screening.