HPV vaccine: why young women now face 'close to zero' risk of cervical cancer death

A new study by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and King's College London has found that the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has had an even stronger impact on cervical cancer than expected. Researchers told the BBC that women vaccinated at ages 12 to 13 now face a «close to zero» risk of dying from the disease in the coming decades.

The study tracked cancer screening data from the cohorts enrolled in England's national HPV vaccination programme since 2008. Cases of invasive cervical cancer in vaccinated women have dropped by more than 90 per cent compared with pre-vaccine cohorts. The results are even more dramatic for those vaccinated at the youngest ages.

HPV is a sexually transmitted virus responsible for almost all cervical cancer cases worldwide. The vaccine targets the two most dangerous strains, HPV-16 and HPV-18, which together account for roughly 70 per cent of the global disease burden.

Professor Peter Sasieni, who led the study, told the BBC that «for a young girl vaccinated today, cervical cancer is essentially no longer a disease she needs to worry about». His statement is based on the largest real-world data set assembled since the vaccination programmes began in the late 2000s.

The NHS in England offers the HPV vaccine free of charge to all girls and boys aged 12 to 13. Boys were added to the programme in 2019 to reduce throat and anal cancer risks and to provide indirect protection to women. Uptake fell during the pandemic but has recovered over the past two years.

The World Health Organization considers cervical cancer the first cancer that could be globally eliminated in the 21st century. WHO's 2030 target requires every country to vaccinate at least 90 per cent of girls under 15 and to scale up routine screening.

Access remains a major problem in low- and middle-income countries. According to Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, 86 countries had introduced HPV vaccination into routine schedules by 2025, but coverage in sub-Saharan Africa is still below 40 per cent. Cervical cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death among women in much of the region.

The success of the English model rests on a school-based, high-uptake campaign combined with the continued NHS cervical screening programme. UKHSA notes that Australia and the Nordic countries are seeing similar trends.

Doctors stress that, however optimistic the long-term data, vaccinated women still need to attend regular screening appointments. The vaccine does not cover every cancer-causing strain of HPV and does not protect against other sexually transmitted infections.

The data suggests that one of the most successful vaccine campaigns in public-health history could become a template for many countries, including Turkey. The HPV vaccine is not currently part of the routine childhood schedule run by Turkey's Health Ministry; the private-market dose costs upwards of 4,000 Turkish lira. The Turkish Medical Association has long called for the vaccine to be added to the national programme.